Thursday 11 June 2026
1. Global Macro
- The ECB is widely expected to hike its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at today's meeting, with market-implied odds near 99%. The move follows euro area headline inflation jumping to 3% in April, driven by energy-led second-round effects from Middle East conflict.
- May US CPI landed roughly in line with consensus, with headline up 0.5% month on month and core up 0.2%. The print reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will hold rates at next week's June 17 meeting.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday 16 June. Markets are positioned for the RBA to remain on hold given resilient labour conditions and lingering inflation risks tied to higher energy prices.
- Geopolitics dominate the macro tape, with US strikes against Iran for a second consecutive day raising fears that diplomatic efforts could collapse and that the conflict will disrupt global trade and energy flows for an extended period.
- Inflation expectations at shorter horizons are rising sharply across major economies while longer-term measures remain anchored, complicating the calibration challenge for central banks balancing growth and price stability.
2. Equity Markets
- Wall Street suffered a heavy session overnight. The Dow Jones fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq sank 2.0% on a combination of AI valuation concerns and escalating Middle East tensions.
- The ASX 200 is set to open Thursday 69 points or 0.8% lower based on SPI futures, following the weak US lead. The local market is coming off elevated levels around 8,735 reached earlier in June.
- Mega cap tech led the US declines, with Nvidia down 1.4%, Broadcom off 3.9%, Micron lower by 3.5%, and Oracle slipping 2.4% ahead of its earnings release. Sentiment around stretched AI multiples remains fragile.
- Australian gold equities are expected to face heavy selling pressure on Thursday after bullion's overnight slump, with Newmont and Northern Star Resources in focus.
- Energy names are likely to outperform on both sides of the Pacific as the surge in crude prices supports earnings expectations across the producer complex.
3. Private Equity & Deal Flow
- Telecom consortium agreed to acquire Patrick Drahi's SFR for $23.5 billion (announced 6 June), the largest European telecom transaction in years and a marquee carve-out of the Altice empire.
- Ingredion announced a $3.6 billion takeover of UK-listed Tate & Lyle on 8 June, consolidating the global specialty ingredients sector.
- Triton Partners closed its acquisition of Flender from Carlyle at a deal value of approximately EUR 3 billion ($3.5 billion) on 5 June, marking a notable sponsor-to-sponsor exit in industrials.
- Servier agreed to acquire Edgewise Therapeutics' Muscular Dystrophy business for $2.65 billion on 4 June, continuing the pickup in pharma carve-out activity.
- 2026 deal flow themes remain consistent: secondaries and continuation vehicles dominate exits, megadeals are returning where conviction is high, and clean energy, semiconductors, and logistics lead cross-border activity.
4. Commodities & FX
- Brent crude climbed toward $95 per barrel and WTI rose 1.7% to $91.55 per barrel as US strikes on Iran entered a second day, with traders pricing in extended Middle East supply risk.
- Gold collapsed 4.5% overnight, with futures sinking to $4,092 per ounce. Bullion is now sitting at its lowest level since November 2025 as a stronger US dollar and risk-off equity flows trump safe-haven demand.
- AUD/USD is trading below 0.71 after dropping nearly 2% last week to a two-month low near 0.7000 on 10 June. The pair remains pressured by US dollar strength and softer commodity sentiment outside of energy.
- Iron ore is trading around $101 to $105 per tonne after touching its highest level since January 2026, with Chinese restocking and supply discipline providing support.
- The US dollar index continues to firm broadly, capping any rallies in non-energy commodities and weighing on emerging market and antipodean currencies.
Key Themes for Today
The dominant cross-cutting story is the second-day US-Iran exchange of strikes, which is simultaneously pushing crude prices higher, pressuring risk assets through a renewed tech selloff, and complicating the inflation outlook for central banks. Investors should watch the ECB's expected 25bp hike to 2.25% today as confirmation that energy-led inflation is forcing hawkish tilts despite slowing growth, while the divergence between firmer energy and a sharp gold liquidation suggests positioning, not fear, is currently driving safe-haven flows.
Briefing compiled by Murdoch Capital AI | 11 June 2026